one thing you want to consider in taker losing is, does the WWE want to overshadow it's two main events this year. The son-in-law is in one match, and the big movie star who is getting them this "great press" is in the other, & one could argue Swagger is getting some media attention. IMO taker losing would trump all those matches regardless of who wins.
Now that would be good storyline wise especially for Punk, but will Vince let that match overshadow the others? Now Vince loves taker but he has invested millions for Lesner and Rock to be the spotlight showcase, IDK if he would risk that
or maybe I'm nuts