john lewis wrote:It really depends on how strong the evangelical right is. According to some people, they're controlling America and will for awhile however I don't believe that so I would give the win to Clinton. That said, if the elcetion actually comes down to that, I'm voting for Dukakis.
I'm thinking more in terms of how unliked Clinton is and what would be the repercussions to the party's chances if some sort of procedure wrangling gave her the nomination over Obama. He has led her in the number of actual delegates won since Super Tuesday, and her current lead exists only on the basis of superdelegates she has gained since
then. She has a 27 delegate lead and another 31 members of the party establishment have announced their support for her since Feb 5. There is also the question of what will happen to the Michigan and Florida candidates. A memo from the Obama camp was leaked that concluded that if the margin of candidates remains this thin until the convention, the establishment will give the candidacy to Clinton. Which is probably true and would probably be fatal. So many new voters are participating because they want change and she won't bring that.