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Carlos Beltran

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LOLtron
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Carlos Beltran

Postby LOLtron » Wed Oct 08, 2008 4:47 am

With the conclusion of the 2008baseball season,  there are lot of thingsI could talk about. The playoffs, a NLCS preview, even a look into theoffseason. Instead, I'd rather do something that takes a bit more effort, butmight be an interesting read.Carlos Beltran turned 31 this pastyear, and concluded his 11th season in the bigs. His career totalsinclude 263 homers and  275 stolen bases,as he approaches the 300-300 club, of which there are only 6members(coincidentally, all outfielders). He's was the 1999 A.L. Rookie of theYear, a four time All-Star, a two time Silver Slugger, and will likely win histhird consecutive Gold Glove. The question is, could he be on the verge of aHall of Fame career.                Let'sstart with the 300-300 club thing. The six members include Barry Bonds, BobbyBonds, Steve Finley, Andre Dawson, Reggie Sanders, and Willie Mays. Of thatgroup, Mays is enshrined in Cooperstown, and Barry Bonds will likely join hisgodfather there someday.  Finley andSanders arent eligible yet, but won't get in. Bobby Bonds was a good player fora long time, but did not have a career worth of the honor. Dawson has receivedsome support, but has fallen short.                Soentry into the 300-300 club is no guarantee. But Beltran has some years to go.How can we figure out where he'd rank? That's where Bill James comes in.                Yearsago, Bill James created something called Favorite Toy. It's a formula hecreated that allows you to project what a player will produce for his career,based on previous production and age. I will detail the formula below, usingBeltran's stats.                Accordingto Favorite Toy, Beltran has 5.4 expected seasons left(40-31*.6). In his last 3seasons, Beltran has hit 26, 33 and 41 homers respectively, giving him aweighted average of 30.83333 homers per season(26*3+33*2+41=185/6=30.83333).Now we multiply the two(expected seasons and weighted homers per season andarrive at a career projection of 402.5. We'll round up to 403 for simplicitiessake. Beltran needs 137 homers for 400, so according to another part of theformula, he has an 83% chance or reaching that.                Whatabout his stolen base numbers? The expected age stays the same, and hisweighted stolen base totals are 23.16666. Using the formula, we see thatBeltran has 125.1 stolen bases left, just giving him 400 for his career.  He has a 50% chance of reaching this goal,which is reasonable considering that most players tend to slow down as they getolder.                IfBeltran manages to reach both of these goals, what would his Hall of Famechances look like? I'd say pretty good, as the only player with 400+ in bothcategories is Barry Bonds. Looking at other statistics, he projects to getclose to the 2500 hit mark, and 500 doubles mark. Put all of that together, andhe would make an interesting Hall of Fame candidate.                Workingagainst him is his reputation.  He'ssomehow picked up the reputation of an underachiver, and a lot of that is basedon his playoff record. In 2004 he hit 8 homers in 12 games. Of course, its animpossible pace to keep up, but the fact that he doesn't produce like that,especially since he earned a $117 million contract from the Mets after thatperformance, puts him in a poor light. The other playoff performance is animage burned into the minds of Mets fans: his taking strike 3 from AdamWainwright with the bases loaded and 2 outs in Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS.Overlooked is the fact that he hit 3 homers during that series.                Sothe real question remains, is Carlos Beltran a Hall of Fame caliber player. Asof right now, I'd say  no. His OPS is atad on the low side(for perspective, Jay Buhner, Carlos Pena, and Pat Burrellare right behind him). But if he continues putting up the numbers he has thelast 3 seasons, he'll certainly have a case.Discuss
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